According to scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a CO2 emission due to the earth is warming less than previously thought. But this does not mean that the problem of the greenhouse effect is solved by itself.
Over the past 15 years the average temperature at the earth’s surface is not growing as fast as it should be expected on the background of current emissions of greenhouse gases. In the period between 2000 and 2010 were released into the atmosphere about 100 billion tons of carbon dioxide. This is about a quarter of the number of CO2, emitted into the atmosphere by mankind since 1750. Yet, according to a member of the science team head of Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA), James Hansen, the five-year average global temperature has almost no increase.
To clarify this, the global temperature fluctuates over short periods, but contrary to predictions, the climate of our planet for some reason does not respond to rising carbon emissions. This is clearly seen in how the observed temperature is not the same as the forecast model. This discrepancy between the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of a significant increase in global temperature is one of the greatest scientific mysteries. This does not mean that global warming is a fiction, and it does not exist, because in spite of the discrepancy with the weather, the temperature in the first decade of XXI century, nearly 1 degree Celsius higher than in the same period of XX century.
Inconsistency forecasts and the real picture is probably related to the time lag between the increase in emissions and warming. Carbon dioxide itself absorbs infrared radiation. Thus, doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere causes a rise in global temperature by 1 degree Celsius. It turns out that the growth of carbon dioxide from pre-industrial 280 parts per million to 560 today coincides with the observed warming of 1 degree Celsius. It seems that all is well – doubling emissions and concomitant rise in temperature of 1 degree Celsius is not the problem – with the pace of warming can be overcome. Unfortunately, not all that easy.
First, the increase in CO2 affects the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn affects the global temperature and can cause much greater warming.
Second, soot and other aerosols also influence global temperature.
And here and there are scientific debates: researchers can not come together to agree what it is warming to expect. In this latest study, scientists from the IPCC concluded that a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to global warming in the range of 2 ° C to 4,5 ° C. It is more likely that the Earth will become warmer around 3 degrees Celsius. Increase in the average global temperature increase of 3 ° C can be extremely destructive. In the IPCC suggest that a rise in temperature may mean that some large areas of the planet will become dry and up to 30% of species will be on the verge of extinction.
The next IPCC report on this subject will be released in September, and there are reports that the draft report is even more pessimistic forecast: can grow warmer by 6-7 degrees Celsius, it will be a disaster for many regions of the planet.
However, the controversy continued until, and optimists can find a more optimistic forecast. For example, scientists from the Research Institute for Global Change inYokohamaestimated that a doubling of CO2 would raise the average temperature of 2.3 degrees Celsius (range 0,5-4,0 ° C). But weather Research Council of Norway’s Rainbow: Warming to 1,9 ° C (range 1,2-2,9 ° C).