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Revolution starts in line for food

02 Sep

foodIntense drought around the world means that the end of 2012 and 2013 are predictable to be stormy. Lead Economist for global food policy, Lester Brown told us about the current situation of food.

Trying to turn the information into a product of consumption, and the expenditure of news in entertainment. Because modern man is less and less looking back, it is hard to remember all that was very recently. Recently, it was the fact that in Tunisia and Egypt have been the revolution under the slogan “Dignity before bread”, but it was preceded by a expression under the slogan “Bread!”. Not surprisingly, many of the economic, social, demographic and environmental causes of the innovative awakening of 2012 hardly remember that preceded them, the food riots of 2008-2009.

The riots of 2008-2009 were caused by the same reasons that the following after them, the revolutionary events – global climate change and the transition to a free-market economy, the transformation of the world food market in a speculative stock market, where prices are determined not by supply and demand, and investment speculation . In May 2012 the United Nations published a forecast that the situation is better than in 2007. Mother Nature and the speculative nature of the globalism market deny UN experts estimate.

Following the publication of the report, almost half of all U.S. agricultural districts have been declared natural disaster zones. United States – the world’s breadbasket, but the drought struck, and other major grain producers – Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan.

If the United States sneeze, the whole world is bent – this old joke lately is becoming more sinister meaning. First there was the financial crisis, the food now. Drought in the U.S. threatens to crash the world. Recently I was at an event where he performed leading specialist in global food supply, the head of the “Institute of the Earth” Lester Brown. His new book, “Complete Planet – empty plates. The new geopolitics of food needs “is expected in October.

Lester Brown says that the world food market is now fully integrated. In his speech, he explained how dangerous the world the “sneezing” USA:

– There is only one price for corn, one price for wheat, one price for rice. Some countries are able to control domestic prices, but in general, everyone pays the same price. The price for the next 24 hours is determined every day on the stock exchange in Chicago. Corn became the world’s leading cereal. World corn production for more than a third of global wheat and two times the global rice crop. U.S. is the world’s largest producer of corn (about 36%). So that the yield of corn in the U.S. has a direct impact on the world situation. Today, in August 2012, it is clear that the harvest will drop by at least 25%. And it’s already raising prices. In July, the price of corn reached unprecedented world record – $ 8 a bushel, two times higher than last year. The high price of corn is also reflected in the price of meat and dairy products. They are, in fact, also a product of corn. Corn crop in the United States exceeds the total volume of grain and rice crops in China. What happens with the crop in the U.S., will affect the whole world, because America is not only the largest producer but also the largest exporter of grain. Argentina is the second largest exporter of corn, but exports are three times less than the U.S..

I wrote here about Lester Brown. He predicted a similar situation a year ago:

– Last summer on Russia hit a wave of unusually high temperatures. Throughout July temperature in Moscow was 14 degrees (Fahrenheit, 10 ° C) above normal. This reduced the grain harvest in Russia since the alleged 100 million tons to 60 million – says Lester Brown. – The U.S. is growing about 400 million tons of grain per year. Imagine what would happen if the American production fell by 40%. The lack of 160 million tons of grain would create an imminent chaos in world markets by the end of summer. There is no doubt that the grain-producing countries announced an embargo on the export of grain. And we’ll see those prices for food, which had never seen before.

This was said at the beginning of 2011. It seems that his most dire predictions come true very quickly.

– Rise in prices for corn will affect the prices of all food products – meat, milk, cheese; yogurt…. the list is endless. Around the world, animals are fed corn. Actually, the basic diet of livestock and poultry is in four parts corn and one part soy flour. The situation with the harvest of corn and soybeans will affect the entire world. Pastoral picture cows grazing in the meadows, to forget. Most of humanity gets meat from huge farm factories. On the ground, just do not have enough pasture to provide feed livestock and poultry, which consumes humanity.

There is another circumstance. Throughout history mankind has cultivated about four thousand species of grasses. Of these, only four – corn, wheat, rice and soybeans nearly drove the others. In some places, even rye. Here and there, a little grown sorghum, very small yields. There are local cereals such as Taff in Ethiopia, however, became the basis of four cereal supply humanity – Lester Brown explained in August 2012.

There is one more painful issue in the U.S. – the World Climate Change. More than half of Americans in the current post-modern times, it is considered a dangerous left idea. Reactionary propaganda (money vested interest corporations) even managed to rename climate change “global warming.” Warming does not sound so ominous. In any American audience necessarily hear on global warming / climate change (the name depends on ideology ask).

– It is difficult to associate any climatic phenomena directly to global climate change. However, what we have seen, is identical to the predicted effects of global scientists of climate change. In particular, scientists have predicted that there will be more droughts; they will become more intense, more frequent. That is what we are seeing now. It is impossible to say that the current drought is a direct consequence of global climate change, but this is exactly what I expected to see as a result of climate change – says Lester Brown.

Anxiety to embrace the American public, unfortunately, we have to repeat the truth three times. What is happening in the world?

– For some time now we have seen the increase of problems with spring wheat in the countries leading exporters of grain: in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. (Spring crops are planted in the spring, and their harvest is in autumn, they are considered to be more drought-resistant.) To some extent, the drought will affect the winter wheat crop in Russia and Ukraine, which would further aggravate the situation in the grain market. Of particular concern is the situation in India. The expected monsoon rains in many areas have not yielded the desired amount of water.

What are the possible solutions?
– The situation is getting worse. The combination of climate change, water scarcity, soil depletion and other factors create a dangerous situation with the supply of mankind. Two important things we could do, outside of agriculture. Humanity must radically change the energy of the planet – switch from fossil fuels to playable. And this must be done quickly. Second – this is to stop the growth of the world population. The sooner, the better! This humanity can do. Drought is much harder to stop.

I asked the opinion of Lester Brown optimistic about the UN report, which concludes that the food situation is better than it was four years ago, when a jump in food prices caused protests around the world.

– They thought then that the situation is better. Now the situation is definitely worse! The current drought – the most serious in the past 50 years.

 

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