No one denies that the planet has come the global warming. Scientists project that in the coming years, sea levels will rise by 1.5 meters. But the forecast for the coming years. And what happens if the melting glaciers will avalanche? The development of such a situation can occur, of course, in the coming years, and during the following centuries, when will live our great-great-great-grandchildren.
The Institute of Computational Mathematics held scale, which have no analogues in Russia the study of climate dynamics. The simulation of the dynamics of climate on the planet in the XIX-XXII centuries. Today it is the only Russian mathematical model that takes into account the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean.
Told the director INM RAS Academician Valentin Dymnikov to play climate XIX-XX centuries and climate modeling, XXI-XXII centuries, timed the course of concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide), volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols, solar radiation, observed up to now then, as well as forecast changes in the concentration of radiation-active gases according to the scenario of moderate development. It is recognized that the concentration of carbon dioxide by 2100 should increase to about half compared with 2000, and during the XXII century, its concentration, as well as other gases, will not change.
After a year of Herculean labors of people, and processors found that the model of INM RAS, which deals with one billion different parameters exactly reproduces the dynamics have taken place climate change and reiterated the absolute magnitude of the observed over a century of warming 0,6-0,7 degrees. Just playing and dynamics of warming over a century – for example, a slowing down in 1950-1970, respectively.
After passing the exam the past, the model predicts the future. According to academician Valentin Dymnikova, at the end of XXII century compared to the current time will warming more than 3 degrees. Especially landslide warming will occur in the XXI century. Regarding the geographic distribution of temperature change, then after 200 years the maximum warming occurs in the Arctic. Near the North Pole in summer multiyear ice is almost gone and will appear only in winter. Significantly increase the temperature in the temperate latitudes of all continents of the Northern Hemisphere (4-6 degrees), less than warmer air over the oceans and in the Southern Hemisphere (2-3 degrees).
Almost all Western Siberian plain hides under the water. Black, Caspian and Aral Sea – unite and razolyutsya. There will be flooded with the most fertile lands of the Kuban and Stavropol. Under the water will be and the northern capital – St. Petersburg. Other countries also get their own. For example, would be flooded almost all the fertile land of China. States such as Bangladesh, the Netherlands, Denmark – will cease to exist and will become an underwater kingdom. However, the very shoreline of the Western, Northern and Southern Europe has changed slightly. Many islands in the Caribbean and Indonesia would also be under water. Territory of Australia is divided almost in half kind of bay, resembling the shape of an ellipse. Flooded would be the most fertile land delta of the Nile, Amazon, Yangtze, and Mekong. These areas inhabited 7 of 10 inhabitants of the planet.
There will be gradual shift boundaries of forests of the temperate zone to the north and a decrease in their area. The area of desert increased by 17%. For countries with underdeveloped economies (Africa, Asia), which are particularly sensitive to small changes in climate, it means famine and epidemics.
Global warming means the spread of tropical insects – carriers of dangerous infections. Thus, Asian tiger mosquitoes will go to more northern areas, expanding the habitat. They are agents of hemorrhagic fever, which claims the lives of 5 percent of infected people.