The era of computers : 2029

30 Mar

Futurologists to estimate how dangerous it is to create artificial intelligence, superior to man.
Own hands
Scientists have begun to scare people with artificial brains of about 50 years ago. Then the famous British statistician John Irving Gould predicted that immediately after the construction of “sverhrazumnoy cars … certainly follow” smart bombing “and the human mind far lag behind the artificial … Thus, the first sverhrazumnaya machine will be the last invention that fall to the share rights, with provided that the machine will be humble enough and tell us how to keep it under control, “ wrote

Terrible and seemingly fantastic acquired the real features of the prophecy in 1997. Then the supercomputer Deep Blue, built on 256 processors working in parallel, defeated in chess is not anyone else, but most of the world champion Garry Kasparov. That is already in some ways surpassed.

Now, grow, and the power and speed of computers. To count the number of operations performed by them for a second, already used the prefix “peta”, signifying the unit with 15 zeros. And thinking about “yotta”, “Hello” – units with 24 and 27 zeros. Scientists are designing quantum computers and combine elements in a neural network, similar in design to the brain.

Three years ago, scientists from IBM and the Swiss Federal Technical Institute in Lausanne (Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne – EPFL), working on the project Blue Brain ( “blue brain”), announced that they were able to fully simulate the brain of a mouse. The next step – a man. The researchers do not intend to simulate consciousness and create intelligence. According to them, after reaching a certain threshold of complexity of “consciousness can come of itself.”

– Forty years ago we could not even imagine what pace will develop information technology – says Intel’s chief technology officer Justin Rattner. – It is near the time when the “intelligence” of computers will surpass the capabilities of people.

Rare futurist doubt that such a time must come. Unless, of course, will not prevent some kind of global catastrophe. But what promises intellectual revolution? Heaven on earth for mankind? Or Hell? Here the unanimous opinion of the experts there.


Enthusiasts – a kind of utopian – see the future is very bright. It is believed that artificial intelligence will complement and enable each man with supernatural abilities. For a start – a colossal memory, and then the ability to instantly solve complex problems. Least due to the fact that people can directly – through special interfaces – connect to computers and use them as if their brains.

Gloomy skeptics see the danger. I predict trouble all sizes.

– There is no evidence that the level of human intelligence – an insurmountable threshold – they say. – On the contrary, it comes to overcoming it.

But if a person creates a mind, a more perfect and powerful than his own, nothing will prevent this is even more reason to create a powerful artificial offspring. And he goes farther and farther along the path of intellectual evolution – a limitless mind.

But before that, and quickly turn mankind into a community of lower order. Not in the ants, of course, but in children. Even the most minimal lag will lead to persistent misunderstanding of what is happening. Try to explain the secret of the five-year child, no, no synchrotron, and even a TV or refrigerator. It is unlikely that your efforts will be crowned with success.

Computers themselves will begin to set goals. And to solve them ourselves. Solve methods that people can hardly comprehend. And because the artificial intelligence in contrast to our brain will have a real opportunity to improve yourself, all this will occur with increasing speed. Around us there will be new machines, devices, and make clear that knows how functioning.

After Super mind drop his humanity from the top of the evolutionary ladder might come universal prosperity. If the child – this “prodigy” – he loved us and will take care of. How do we – about pets: dog, cat or hamster. And they loved, so it may happen, as in the movie about the terminator.

Singularities coming

A point in the history of mankind, when we cease to understand what is happening around us, scientists have called “technological singularity”. The first time it used the phrase in the middle of last century, one of the fathers of modern computers, John von Neumann. He often said “about continuously accelerating technological progress and changes in lifestyle of people who give the impression to some approximation of the critical singularity in the history of Earth’s race, for which all human affairs, in the form in which we know them, can not continue.”

The famous American inventor and futurist Ray Kurtsvayl, whose name is included in the list

18 outstanding thinkers of our time, appoint a singularity in 2029. Similar view is shared by specialists of the project Blue Brain, which by 2029 plans to fully simulate the human brain.

In Justin Rattner forecasts modest. He believes that artificial intelligence will surpass human in its development by 2050.


Monitor will be strictly

– Machine can surpass the human mind, – the chairman of Scientific Council of the Association of Artificial Intelligence, PhD, Professor, Head of the Laboratory of the Institute of Management Sciences Oleg Kuznetsov. – But while before this is very far. Thirty years – forty, not less. Previously, such a daunting task, as the construction of high-grade intelligence, not inferior to human, we are unlikely to be able to cope. Because, among other things, its creation should be accompanied by monitoring systems.

If suddenly artificial intelligence gets out of control, then do something would be very difficult. But if you control the whole process of gradual evolution, then I think there are possibilities to avoid the “takeover” machine.

– Are people able to control intelligence, superior to his level?

– It’s not only that he was smarter than us or not. Control does not require superior intelligence. Smart has always been in the service of strong, albeit resent it. The problem of control – a problem of admission to Opportunity: The resources, decision making, etc. d.

– And how much still real humanity “to fall into a chronic lack of understanding”?

– Question in the amount of misunderstanding. It is not that kind of new reality. There is a crisis. Do you think we are well aware of what is happening? No. We believe they are very clever, but all we know, even about his body? How it works, that we are there we can turn off and what is not? Can we consider all the consequences of their actions? No. Similarly, it will be with artificial intelligence. That is why ordinary people did not even notice this “stalling”.

In the long term is not excluded, of course, the scenario, when artificial intelligence will bring humanity to the level of domestic dogs and cats. But only if it is underestimating the problem of control. And this applies not only to artificial intelligence, but also genetic engineering and biotechnology.


As long as we distinguish them

The term “artificial intelligence” (AI – Artificial Intelligence) has started relatively recently – in 1956. He introduced 29-year-old Stanford University professor John McCarthy. A famous mathematician Alan Turing devised the test for reasonableness of the intellect. He looks like this: “Judge” in writing deals with two subjects, one of them – man, and the second – the computer. The machine recognizes the “reasonable” in that case, if a judge for five minutes will not be able to properly identify who is who. Yet not a single car to pass the test failed, even though Turing himself was convinced that by 2000 computers will be able to 30 per cent of cases show a reasonable creatures.

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Posted by on March 30, 2010 in Techonology


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